Mainland China RMB Rate Derivatives Notional Hits $3.4 Trillion

Onshore renminbi interest rate derivatives traded notional in mainland China reached $3.4 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 19.0% from the first half of 2025, according to ISDA's report on IRD trading in mainland China and Hong Kong.

The same report shows the Hong Kong market moving in two directions at once. RMB IRD traded notional in Hong Kong rose 3.7% to $9.1 trillion, and its share of the market climbed to 17.5% from 12.9% a year earlier. Total IRD traded notional reported to the Hong Kong Trade Repository (HKTR) fell 23.6% to $52.1 trillion, driven mainly by lower yen and US dollar activity. Trade count moved the other way, rising 10.0% to a record 811.8 thousand.

What does the split between notional and trade count tell desks?

The divergence matters for anyone pricing or routing rate trades in the region. Notional fell by nearly a quarter while the number of trades grew by a tenth to a record level. That combination points to smaller average trade sizes in yen and US dollar products, even as participants executed more frequently. Post-trade and reporting infrastructure in Hong Kong is therefore processing record volumes of transactions against a falling aggregate notional base.

For the buy side, the shift in Hong Kong's currency mix is the more durable signal. RMB products now account for 17.5% of reported IRD notional, against 12.9% in the first half of 2025 — a gain of 4.6 percentage points in twelve months. The RMB share grew both because renminbi notional rose 3.7% and because the total pool shrank by 23.6%.

How fast is onshore RMB activity growing?

Mainland China's onshore RMB IRD market grew 19.0% year on year to $3.4 trillion in notional terms. That growth rate is roughly five times the 3.7% increase recorded in Hong Kong's RMB book over the same period, although Hong Kong's RMB notional of $9.1 trillion remains close to three times the size of the onshore mainland market.

The two markets are therefore converging in growth terms but not yet in scale. A desk watching RMB rate exposure now has to track two liquidity pools with different growth profiles:

• Mainland onshore: $3.4 trillion notional, up 19.0% year on year
• Hong Kong: $9.1 trillion RMB notional, up 3.7% year on year, with market share at 17.5% of total HKTR-reported IRD

What is measured and what is asserted?

The figures above are measured: they are traded notionals and trade counts reported to the HKTR and compiled by ISDA for the first half of 2026. The report attributes the 23.6% decline in total HKTR notional mainly to lower yen and US dollar activity. That attribution is stated rather than separately quantified — the report does not break out the yen and dollar declines by amount, so desks comparing venue or currency allocations should treat the composition shift as directional rather than exact.

The record trade count of 811.8 thousand, up 10.0%, is a hard number. It sets a new high for the repository and signals rising operational load for reporting, reconciliation and margin workflows even where notional is falling.

What comes next?

ISDA has published the full report as a PDF, and the association's October 2026 output includes related policy work — recommendations on EMIR under the Market Integration and Supervision Package dated November 2 and a November 6 response to the FCA's consultation CP26/34 on the new UK MIFIR transaction reporting regime. Desks with cross-border RMB exposure will find the second-half 2026 data, when published, the test of whether the onshore market's 19% growth rate holds.